I'm struck by the number of comment pieces pointing out the difficulty that the opposition parties and pro-Remain Tory MPs will have in winning a vote of no confidence against Boris and installing a new government.
I agree with this.Winning a no confidence vote looks far from impossible but coming up with an alternative prime minister who can win a vote of confidence is quite another thing. The reasoning is pretty well rehearsed; Corbyn thinks he should be the alternative prime minister but he doesn't have the numbers.
The alternative for the Remainers is to seize control of the order paper and pass legislation forcing Boris to ask the EU for another extension to the Brexit date.
This is what the commentators seem to skirt over.
However, to me this looks a perfectly likely scenario. It has already been done once, back on 4 April, when the bill passed by 1 vote and the EU Withdrawal Act 2019 subsequently became law.
Since then, the arithmetic in the Commons has got worse for the government so why shouldn't Yvette Cooper and her friends pull off the same trick again? The Speaker will obviously assist again in getting it done. There don't seem to be any impediments.
Obviously it would be a huge humiliation for Boris to be forced to ask the EU for an extension and it would be a major boost for the Brexit Party.
The question is though, what can Boris do to avoid it? Proroguing parliament would be a last resort. How about just ignoring any new Act?
The provisions of the previous Act were never tested because Theresa May decided she wanted an extension. As such, it's unclear if the Act managed to achieve its objectives.
However, presumably a future Bill has already been drafted, ready for the return of parliament in September. This Bill will, one imagines, be drafted much more carefully and Boris would find himself in contempt of court should he ignore it.
The other option is that parliament simply revokes Article 50. While this sounds simple in theory, I imagine many MPs would hesitate to vote for something that blatantly cancels the referendum result. Revoking Article 50 might, however, be incorporated into a new Bill forcing the government to ask for an extension. It could be made the consequence of the government refusing to ask for such an extension. I can imagine a lot of Remainer MPs voting for that.
I agree with this.Winning a no confidence vote looks far from impossible but coming up with an alternative prime minister who can win a vote of confidence is quite another thing. The reasoning is pretty well rehearsed; Corbyn thinks he should be the alternative prime minister but he doesn't have the numbers.
The alternative for the Remainers is to seize control of the order paper and pass legislation forcing Boris to ask the EU for another extension to the Brexit date.
This is what the commentators seem to skirt over.
However, to me this looks a perfectly likely scenario. It has already been done once, back on 4 April, when the bill passed by 1 vote and the EU Withdrawal Act 2019 subsequently became law.
Since then, the arithmetic in the Commons has got worse for the government so why shouldn't Yvette Cooper and her friends pull off the same trick again? The Speaker will obviously assist again in getting it done. There don't seem to be any impediments.
Obviously it would be a huge humiliation for Boris to be forced to ask the EU for an extension and it would be a major boost for the Brexit Party.
The question is though, what can Boris do to avoid it? Proroguing parliament would be a last resort. How about just ignoring any new Act?
The provisions of the previous Act were never tested because Theresa May decided she wanted an extension. As such, it's unclear if the Act managed to achieve its objectives.
However, presumably a future Bill has already been drafted, ready for the return of parliament in September. This Bill will, one imagines, be drafted much more carefully and Boris would find himself in contempt of court should he ignore it.
The other option is that parliament simply revokes Article 50. While this sounds simple in theory, I imagine many MPs would hesitate to vote for something that blatantly cancels the referendum result. Revoking Article 50 might, however, be incorporated into a new Bill forcing the government to ask for an extension. It could be made the consequence of the government refusing to ask for such an extension. I can imagine a lot of Remainer MPs voting for that.
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