Another Brexit extension looks likely

I'm struck by the number of comment pieces pointing out the difficulty that the opposition parties and pro-Remain Tory MPs will have in winning a vote of no confidence against Boris and installing a new government.

I agree with this.Winning a no confidence vote looks far from impossible but coming up with an alternative prime minister who can win a vote of confidence is quite another thing. The reasoning is pretty well rehearsed; Corbyn thinks he should be the alternative prime minister but he doesn't have the numbers.

The alternative for the Remainers is to seize control of the order paper and pass legislation forcing Boris to ask the EU for another extension to the Brexit date.

This is what the commentators seem to skirt over.

However, to me this looks a perfectly likely scenario. It has already been done once, back on 4 April, when the bill passed by 1 vote and the EU Withdrawal Act 2019 subsequently became law.

Since then, the arithmetic in the Commons has got worse for the government so why shouldn't Yvette Cooper and her friends pull off the same trick again?  The Speaker will obviously assist again in getting it done. There don't seem to be any impediments.

Obviously it would be a huge humiliation for Boris to be forced to ask the EU for an extension and it would be a major boost for the Brexit Party.

The question is though, what can Boris do to avoid it? Proroguing parliament would be a last resort. How about just ignoring any new Act?

The provisions of the previous Act were never tested because Theresa May decided she wanted an extension. As such, it's unclear if the Act managed to achieve its objectives.

However, presumably a future Bill has already been drafted, ready for the return of parliament in September. This Bill will, one imagines, be drafted much more carefully and Boris would find himself in contempt of court should he ignore it.

The other option is that parliament simply revokes Article 50. While this sounds simple in theory, I imagine many MPs would hesitate to vote for something that blatantly cancels the referendum result. Revoking Article 50 might, however, be incorporated into a new Bill forcing the government to ask for an extension. It could be made the consequence of the government refusing to ask for such an extension. I can imagine a lot of Remainer MPs voting for that.

Boris doesn't necessarily need a pact with the Brexit party

Following the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election there's a lot of comment about how Boris Johnson needs to have a pact with the Brexit party.

However, he's said that there's no chance of this and I expect the reason is that he and his strategists realise that it probably won't be necessary.

The opinion polls have changed markedly from the last election where the Tories and Labour got over 84% of the vote between them.

Under Theresa May we saw the birth of the Brexit party and the resurgence of the Lib Dems.

The Brexit party largely took votes from the Tories and the Lib Dems from Labour. Some polls were showing the four largest parties each polling in the region of 20% - 25%.

Since then, we've had a Boris bounce and as a result, Electoral Calculus shows the following vote share and seats. The Tories end up 15 seats short of a majority:

Party	Percentage	Seats
Conservative	29.7	311
Labour	25.4	224
Lib Dem	18.2	43
Brexit	14.6	0
Green	5.1	1
UKIP	0.8	0

However, because of the vagaries of First Past the Post, the Tories only need to rise a couple of percentage points for them to end up with a majority of 12. Note I've increased the share of both the  Brexit party and the Lib Dems compared with the figures above:

Party	Percentage	Seats
Conservative	32	331
Labour	25	210
Lib Dem	20	46
Brexit	17	7
Green	5	1
UKIP	1	0

If Boris could take just 3% extra from the Brexit party, he ends up with a majority of 82 and the Brexit party are wiped out in terms of seats:

Party	Percentage	Seats
Conservative	35	366
Labour	25	187
Lib Dem	20	41
Brexit	14	0
Green	5	1
UKIP	1	0

I imagine the strategy is, therefore, to do enough to take a few points from the Brexit party in order to reach that magic 35% figure and hope that the Lib Dems and Labour continue to split the broadly Remain vote such that Labour stay on 25%.

Some recent polls are already showing the Tories on 35%. Boris just needs to firm up that figure and hope that Labour and the Lib Dems continue to split their 45%. The Brexit party can keep their 14% with no need for any pact.

Ironically, the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election probably served to make some Brexit party voters think twice about voting for them in a general election for fear of handing the result to a Remain party.