Don't kid yourself, May's deal will get through

Ever since Theresa May came up with her permanent backstop, standstill EU Withdrawal Agreement, I've been wondering what on earth her game plan was.

What on earth was she thinking?

Surely, I thought, she must know that her proposal would never make it through parliament. For one thing, the DLP would never agree to it. Labour was committed to voting against it. The Tory Brexiteers were obviously dead against it and even Tory Remainers like Jo Johnson thought it was capitulation.

I've come up with a few theories and I think I've settled on one.

Misjudgement

My first theory was that she may have genuinely thought it was a reasonable deal and simply misjudged just how negative the reaction would be. Perhaps, I thought, the Maybot's code was on a read only chip and couldn't be reprogrammed.

For one thing, she clearly stopped listening to anyone much except Olly Robins quite some time ago. Add to this that she has always viewed Brexit through the eyes of a Remainer. This means that from day one it has been about damage limitation, not opportunity.

Influenced by her experience as Home Secretary and lack of imagination, she decided long ago that the Leave vote was all about reducing EU migration.

True to form, ever since the draft was published, she has continually tried to sell it to the masses on the basis of taking back control of our borders.

What the Heck

My second theory was that perhaps she'd decided that these Carthaginian terms were the best she could manage, time was running out and that she'd simply thought "What the heck" and gone for it anyway, knowing the chances of success were close to zero.

I tried, honestly

The more I thought about it, this shoulder shrugging nihilist approach didn't fit her personality and this evolved quickly into my third theory. Yes, she decided to go for it knowing it stood little chance of success but this was part of a necessary show.

The audience for this theatre was Barnier and the other leaders. She had to be seen to try her hardest and fail or she would get no concessions from the EU.

What concession was she looking for? That's pretty obvious I think. At a bare minimum there needs to be a get-out clause to the backstop. Who in their right mind signs a treaty with no means of escape? Even EU membership has Article 50 for heaven's sake.

What if no further concessions were forthcoming? That got me thinking back to what she apparently said to her back benchers after the disastrous general election. "I got us into this mess. I'll get us out of it".

Perhaps, I thought, if the EU wouldn't budge she'd sacrifice her leadership and let someone else have a go. A new PM would concentrate minds in Brussels, despite their bluster.

Through it goes

Then it dawned on me. All my previous theories were wrong because I had started from a false premise. May has game planned this thing. She knew the deal wouldn't get through the Commons as things stood but she also knew she would succeed with the help of, primarily, Labour MPs.

Ted Heath did the same thing in 1971 when he got the vote through for us to join the EEC. There's a fascinating Radio 4 programme about it by Ben Wright.

May's deal keeps us in the Customs Union, probably indefinitely. Only the European Court of Justice can let us out and they have no reason to do so. 

What is official Labour policy? Yup, indefinite membership of a customs union. Of course, Keir Starmer will say, he wants a customs union, one in which we get some kind of say, but everyone knows that this is wishful thinking.

Labour is therefore on the back foot, reduced to arguing about whether "customs union" should be preceded by the indefinite or definite article. Hardly worth dying in a ditch for.

Back in 1971, Heath, despite stating initially that there would be a three-line whip, allowed his MPs a free vote. This emboldened Labour MPs to rebel and it got through.

This time around the journey may be a little different but I suspect the destination will be the same. Perhaps on the first attempt both the Tories and Labour will be whipped and the government will lose.

Not so, however, when it is put to the Commons again. Corbyn or May or both will allow a free vote and May will have got her way. 

Turns out she can count after all.

Of course, in the days between the first and second attempt to get it through the Commons, the markets will dive, project fear will be ratcheted up to levels as yet unseen and this will give Labour MPs and Tory Remainer rebels the excuse they need to vote the deal through "in the national interest". 

The SNP could even join in the "country before party" humbug. The Lib Dems will fold like a pack of cards.

May then jumps or is pushed and any MP who was against the deal initially can happily blame her. 

She will have repaid the debt she owed the party for the disaster of the last election. She'll trot along to the Lords and from time to time she'll be invited onto the Today programme to pontificate.

She'll probably be replaced by a "unity" candidate; another Remainer in other words. Amber Rudd and Sajid Javid are the obvious front runners. Dominic Raab could be another option if the Brexiteers need someone who will wring their hands about how terrible the deal is.

All very depressing for a Brexiteer like myself.

The only realistic way out is if the Tories get rid of May before the vote goes through. I just don't see that the will is there though.

What I'm surprised by is how few commentators are saying the same as me. On the other hand, it doesn't make much of an ongoing story, does it?
@felixrandal